Happy Friday everyone. Here is another issue of Week in Review for your weekend reading, where I personally review the events of the past week about China that I think have lasting impact beyond news cycles. For why I write, please check here. For who I am and what new things I can bring on the table, please
On Henry Kissinger, I think and hope we all are mature enough to know that even from bad people good things can arise. Imperfect people we all are, but I think that there are other less monstrous people who could have done the job if Henry wasn't already guzzling at the trough. Equally we know justice is far from perfect, so that monstrous acts go un-punished. Imperfect Justice should not stop us from reasonable efforts to improve justice.
What I do think we should not forget is that Kissinger said after the Nixon visit to China, though I don't have the exact quote at hand, the USA would have to switch it's position and seek to help Russia against China in 20 years. Probably both Henry's greed at riding the China consultant business, and Mikhail Gorbachev's incompetence together with items I can't recall at this moment all upset the schedule. It took 40 odd years before the Obama/Clinton crime families began their Brzezinski flavored version of Henry's strategy his camp had seeded into the American system, but lets be clear this was Henry's baby. Henry even profited from the conflict, and probably foresaw how it would profit him, by offering his services to both US and Chinese Capitalist to help them navigate the rough seas of the Pivot to Asia. To borrow from Khushwant Singh, Henry K. was "not a nice man to know". The difficulties of today can be laid at his tombstone.
Good writing, thank you. Regarding investor confidence in China, trust is certainly an element. But simply look at the numbers, which are available from the publications of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The indices publication of 1 December 2023:
1. Manufacturing PMI: down
2. Non-manufacturing business activity: down
3. Services business activity: down
4. Composite PMI output index: down
The only index that is up a bit is construction.
Then, the publication of 28 November 2023, business revenue: flat. And profit growth: negative.
And finally, market prices of important means of production in circulation, November 21-30, 2023: except for construction steel and cement prices reacting with an uptick to the slight increase in construction activity and LNG adding on a hefty, counterproductive 7%, all other prices are flat or down.
Apart from data of the NBS, the Shanghai stock index is down 6.5% year to date.
Consumption looks good, but compared to "Zero-COVID" period's numbers anything would look good.
Why should foreigners have confidence, if even domestic investors themselves don't have any and 'lie flat'?
Then there is China's increasing political risk, which is probably, what your partner wanted to politely hint at with the education policy example. Reportedly, Moody's told their staff in China to work from home around the time of the downgrade announcement, for fear of retributions from a vengeful Chinese government. For merely berating the obvious.
Opening-up, which the tone from the top keeps suggesting, looks distinctly different. I have also no realistic idea, how to fix that.
Good articles.
On Henry Kissinger, I think and hope we all are mature enough to know that even from bad people good things can arise. Imperfect people we all are, but I think that there are other less monstrous people who could have done the job if Henry wasn't already guzzling at the trough. Equally we know justice is far from perfect, so that monstrous acts go un-punished. Imperfect Justice should not stop us from reasonable efforts to improve justice.
What I do think we should not forget is that Kissinger said after the Nixon visit to China, though I don't have the exact quote at hand, the USA would have to switch it's position and seek to help Russia against China in 20 years. Probably both Henry's greed at riding the China consultant business, and Mikhail Gorbachev's incompetence together with items I can't recall at this moment all upset the schedule. It took 40 odd years before the Obama/Clinton crime families began their Brzezinski flavored version of Henry's strategy his camp had seeded into the American system, but lets be clear this was Henry's baby. Henry even profited from the conflict, and probably foresaw how it would profit him, by offering his services to both US and Chinese Capitalist to help them navigate the rough seas of the Pivot to Asia. To borrow from Khushwant Singh, Henry K. was "not a nice man to know". The difficulties of today can be laid at his tombstone.
Good writing, thank you. Regarding investor confidence in China, trust is certainly an element. But simply look at the numbers, which are available from the publications of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The indices publication of 1 December 2023:
1. Manufacturing PMI: down
2. Non-manufacturing business activity: down
3. Services business activity: down
4. Composite PMI output index: down
The only index that is up a bit is construction.
Then, the publication of 28 November 2023, business revenue: flat. And profit growth: negative.
And finally, market prices of important means of production in circulation, November 21-30, 2023: except for construction steel and cement prices reacting with an uptick to the slight increase in construction activity and LNG adding on a hefty, counterproductive 7%, all other prices are flat or down.
Apart from data of the NBS, the Shanghai stock index is down 6.5% year to date.
Consumption looks good, but compared to "Zero-COVID" period's numbers anything would look good.
Why should foreigners have confidence, if even domestic investors themselves don't have any and 'lie flat'?
Then there is China's increasing political risk, which is probably, what your partner wanted to politely hint at with the education policy example. Reportedly, Moody's told their staff in China to work from home around the time of the downgrade announcement, for fear of retributions from a vengeful Chinese government. For merely berating the obvious.
Opening-up, which the tone from the top keeps suggesting, looks distinctly different. I have also no realistic idea, how to fix that.
https://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-staff-in-china-wfh-during-credit-downgrade-fearing-inspection-2023-12
Great writing. Keep up with the good work.
Thank you for your continued support!