Perhaps global sentiment for Hong Kong is so low, that a top mainland official’s significant visit to Hong Kong got very little coverage. Xia Baolong夏宝龙, Beijing’s “Hong Kong affairs czar”, one of the few such “czars” in history with a deputy-national-leader
“It’s also unwise to think China would allow unfiltered elections in Hong Kong if the basic guardrails to protect national security were not in place. This is because Beijing simply could not afford the political mess if the Hong Kong people elected an anti-China figure to become their leader.”
As an outsider watching the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms, this is the crux of the debate.
Two systems in name only.
The liberties within the capital markets are fine to exhibit as fundamental differences between Chinese systems, but they are basically one if you are comparing democracies.
I’m glad you are a proud Hong Konger.
You must admit though, many of your compatriots are not happy, and some are currently on trial for expressing their displeasure.
Hong Kong thrived with the political liberties you claim must be changed. You advocate the Mainland’s thumb on the scale of democracy. That is your choice. Unfortunately, those that would prefer to elect who they want, even in the face of The Mainland’s displeasure do not have that choice.
You have convinced yourself it’s acceptable for the Mainland to introduce the surveillance and suppression of dissent for the greater good, the numbers fleeing Hong Kong, and the capital too, tell a different tale.
I’d love to visit, the joys of Hong Kong’s diverse geography and culture you describe are an enticing picture, but not live there.
Yep, people ultimately vote by feet. People have the ultimate freedom to do that. They are free to leave. Hundreds of thousands did leave. It's a pity we can't find a solution that makes everybody happy. My ultimate take is 1) China has a point in asserting sovereignty. If the sovereignty question is lost, then "1 country 2 systems" just becomes "2 countries 2 systems". It's not going to work 2) many people stay, and many people join, it's now up to us to make sure Hong Kong is not over.
"The exodus of tens of thousands of professionals from Hong Kong triggered by a crackdown on its civil liberties is being offset by new arrivals: mainland Chinese keen to move to the former British colony.
The Asian financial hub has attracted tens of thousands of visa applications from mainland Chinese under the Top Talent Pass Scheme, a program launched in late 2022 aimed at luring high-income professionals and top global university graduates from around the world, though nine in 10 successful applicants are from China.
For mainland Chinese, Hong Kong’s unique attributes — such as wider freedom of speech and internet access, its cosmopolitan ambiance, a less oppressive work culture, and a society where ability largely trumps connections — set it apart, according to interviews by The Associated Press with 20 mainland Chinese visa holders." https://apnews.com/article/hong-kong-china-chinese-talent-influx-213cca4918b7210d7669ee66fa85c7bd
My only impressions, in this case, are from Mr. Wu.
Along with that, businesses have been hurt and many have left the region, as stated from first hand experience in the comments here.
China is State run, State controlled, and you are at the mercy of the State. Hong Kong too, whatever status it has, can be changed at the discretion of the Chinese government. Western media has nothing to do with it.
Appreciate this article. While I agree that Westerners mistakenly believe that HK has become like any other Chinese city (you list a number of real distinctions), I disagree that there was any threat of "secession or independence" that warranted the NSL and its smothering of HK's creative and business freedoms that was the foundation of the once cosmopolitan city.
Hi, independence and self-determination were at the core of the movement, and it was well-documented https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_independence . And these ideas can be highly contagious. They are the most effective call to arms deployed by the most radical elements. I was in HKU in 2010-2013, those black posters were already everywhere on campus. In fact, the national security issue became a serious matter for China since this movement gained traction in 2014-2015. Since then it had been a power keg. It had a minor explosion in 2014 Occuy Central, and finally had a full explosion in the 2019 anti-extradition protests. These were precisely what China were afraid of. Pre-NSL, there were also no legal tools that could tame these ideas. They can't just tell the HK police to shut it down. They can't shut it down themselves. What can't they do? Sit back and do nothing?
My question for you so that I can better engage with you is that, do you think a) these movements were not real, or b) do you think they were not a problem, or c) do you think there were effective tools to protect against these?
A- they were a fringe within a broadly popular movement to protect HK's autonomy per Article 2 of Basic Law
B- correct
C- none needed and the idea is silly if you consider what would actually need to take place for HK to declare independence. Eg, did HK have a militia ready to fight the PLA?
The CCP smothered Hong Kong over little more than a protest song and rationalization won't bring the city back.
A - It's a very important fringe. Just like Nazis were a fringe pre-1933. They were important because it's what many people secretly supported, they were just the ones who dare to speak out. I know this for a fact, through studying, living and working in HK. This movement had broad, albeit silent support.
B and C, a formal "declaring independence" is certainly out of question, but "independence" doesn't need to take a form like that. Independence simply means "ungovernable". Let me give you an example. Maybe, in another world, instead of suppressing it, China acquiesced. Instead of failing, this movement gained enough traction, and they got to elect a pro-independence chief executive, who always spoke a different tune with China. Appeared on CNN to badmouthed about China. Went to US Congress to badmouth about China. Oh yeah, they don't even have a militia, or army, or the missiles, or aircraft carriers to stand the wrath of the PLA. But PLA can also do nothing if there are no laws that allow them to do anything in such case. And the damage this could do for broader China, that a leader of a Chinese territory could openly, and legally challenge China, would be not just a nuisance, but an EXISTENTIAL crisis. And if PLA just step in without proper legal framework, think of the bigger hurt this can cause for China. After all, a nation is held together by an idea, not by guns.
I agree. Interestingly the most right-wing country in the world now seems to be China, the ethnocentric champion of the Han. This worldview has developed over the past 20 years and doesn’t allow much room for diversity and stifled cosmopolitan Hong Kong. This is also why many now believe Hong Kong is over and now just another Chinese city.
I left Hong Kong just before getting my PR because of these drastic political changes.
Maybe I’ll move back one day because I truly wanted to stay, but I no longer felt welcome as a non Chinese resident.
We live in a world now where the USA believes it is the ultimate evil for a state to consciously represent its majority race. China believes it is the ultimate good. I would prefer to live in a country with neither extreme. I felt Hong Kong was a great example of this middle ground until recently.
I hope that one day China will evolve and allow “minority people” within the nation to express their own identity and politics. For such a large nation there should be room for different views.
China once celebrated its cultural diversity and anti-colonialism but has now come to embrace ethnic nationalism. Mao Zedong claimed communism would eradicate “Han chauvinism” but now that the proletariat has become the establishment these ideas have largely been lost.
Thank you for your clear-eyed assessment of Hong Kong devoid of Western rhetoric. Hong Kong was colonized by the British as a "pirates' den" to fuel their opium drug trade with the mainland. I really appreciate your statements about the common sense of the National Security Laws.
One should remember that the outrage that sparked the laws was a Hong Kong resident that murdered his pregnant girlfriend on a trip to Taiwan, stuffed her and her dead fetus in a suitcase, and fled back to Hong Kong where he was immune from prosecution by Taiwan authorities and no extradition laws. In the end, he was charged with unauthorized use of her credit card when he returned to HK. After a few months of prison he was released. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3153048/mother-teen-girl-killed-taiwan-urges-hong-kong
You make a valid point about HK having to uphold their end of the One Country Two Systems bargain. There must be guardrails and, like it or not, HK is officially part of Mainland China. Macau enjoys similar privileges and seems to prosper within reasonable boundaries with no complaints. As you mention, why would Beijing want to mess with a good thing?
As a Westerner, I notice a sense of nostalgia for old "colonial" Hong Kong permanently encased in the amber of the British Empire. Of course "old Hong Kong" is over just like old Beijing has morphed since then. Hong Kong's fate is to be dynamic and, like a Phoenix, constantly be consumed and resurrected. I rest assured that Hong Kong will export some of that dynamic HK spirit to the Mainland as they struggle to find their way as a world leader in the 21st century.
"Nostalgia is a sweet place for a poet and writer to be in. But it's an indulgence; a distraction. You can't live in a distraction." ~ Gulzar
"As a Westerner, I notice a sense of nostalgia for old "colonial" Hong Kong permanently encased in the amber of the British Empire. ". This is a dark, yet accurate observation that I don't dare to speak out myself :)
I have to say I am extremely happy that property prices have gone down, it was one of the things I hoped the new government post 97 would address much earlier, and I say this as a former resident who still owns property in Hong Kong. The cost of living was crushing Hong Kong's culture, just as the UK desired. Those who lose are social parasites, not productive creators.
Rest well, Robert! Looking forward to Part 2. As someone with ancestral roots in GZ and HK, and who has relatives on both sides still living there, I have a very keen interest in seeing HK succeed.
Wow! I learn more about China from every one of your posts than reading 10 other articles. I'm starting to worry about you— the tall poppy gets cut down.
To everyone who reads this note, subscribe to Robert Woe's substack. He writes about the China of today from a deep background both in Western and Chinese cultures.
That's a new idiom learned for me. Thanks! I am less worried. Just imagine me writing a book here, through those posts. One day, the main contents will be structured into a book, while I will keep applying the framework in that "book" to review events as they come.
Here's another proverb you remind me of: "Be like water flowing around a rock.” I have read that this proverb is Taoist. IOW, instead of getting mad that the rock exists, and wasting time and energy trying to remove it, do the best you have with what you have.
When you have written the first draft of your book, I would be happy to read it as a proofreader and scientific editor. Realize that writing that book will make you an even taller poppy and may change your life in unexpected ways. I would still love to see that book.
>> Don’t call for Hong Kong independence, don’t call for overthrowing the government system in China, don’t be anti-China, and you will be fine. That’s the only major rule change of the last few years, as far as I can see. You don’t even have to be very patriotic, just don’t be treasonous or seditious. This is not really such a big of an ask
Yes, it IS a pretty big ask, because the right to speak against the government is inherent to free speech.
I support the idea that govt should be open to criticism. In Hong Kong, you still CAN criticize the government. Both the HK Government and the central government. Yet, the question of Hong Kong is deeper than that. It's not about government conduct as much as about national security. Although in a democratic society, you are supposed to be able to speak against the government, when it comes to national security, I didn't see much difference between two systems. You know, if in the States, you met with a Chinese spy and promised to help them to do something, I guess very likely that's a criminal activity. The bizarre thing about Hong Kong is, pre NSL, this type of thing was not illegal. I am less sure about secession. But last time Americans seriously tried it, it brought about the Civil War. If a Hong Konger advocated for secession in HK, pre NSL, he would be fine. He could even be elected as a legislator.
It is wrong to say the riots in HK were “inevitable”. As I understand it, they were instigated by the US. That said, I would agree that it was inevitable for Beijing to step in and help HK implement a national security law. Perhaps that was what you really meant.
I meant to say that the absurd situation needs a resolution, and >99% of chance that resolution will not be peaceful. In fact the riots could be much worse. Even that "instigation" did not happen out of blue, but the results of decades' media, discourses, education, etc. Many HKers wouldn't just accept it quietly if Beijing just stepped in. They were not quiet in 2003, they could only be less quieter in 2019.
I'm glad to see a counter argument to that FT article. It isn't over till its over! HK still has all the unique advantages you mentioned. It doesn't make sense to give up before they are even gone. I agree a more optimistic outcome is possible and even likely.
Back in January I got temporary residence in HK through one of the talent schemes. Hope I get the chance to use it before it is over ;)
Another well written piece! Your better at writing in English than many American I know :)
But as always :), I'll add that capital markets can be improved in the ways I suspect you want them to be without eliminating the intranational semi-segmentation of them which would run the great risk of causing China to quickly develop the dark pathologies that America has developed in recent decades.
I have empathy. I suffer dyslexia but only in the Latin Alphabet. When I studied for my MS in Taiwan it was as if a 200 watt incandescent bull went on in my brain.
“It’s also unwise to think China would allow unfiltered elections in Hong Kong if the basic guardrails to protect national security were not in place. This is because Beijing simply could not afford the political mess if the Hong Kong people elected an anti-China figure to become their leader.”
As an outsider watching the erosion of Hong Kong’s freedoms, this is the crux of the debate.
Two systems in name only.
The liberties within the capital markets are fine to exhibit as fundamental differences between Chinese systems, but they are basically one if you are comparing democracies.
I’m glad you are a proud Hong Konger.
You must admit though, many of your compatriots are not happy, and some are currently on trial for expressing their displeasure.
Hong Kong thrived with the political liberties you claim must be changed. You advocate the Mainland’s thumb on the scale of democracy. That is your choice. Unfortunately, those that would prefer to elect who they want, even in the face of The Mainland’s displeasure do not have that choice.
You have convinced yourself it’s acceptable for the Mainland to introduce the surveillance and suppression of dissent for the greater good, the numbers fleeing Hong Kong, and the capital too, tell a different tale.
I’d love to visit, the joys of Hong Kong’s diverse geography and culture you describe are an enticing picture, but not live there.
Sadly, I’d be joining those heading for the exit.
Thank you as always.
Fascinating read.
Yep, people ultimately vote by feet. People have the ultimate freedom to do that. They are free to leave. Hundreds of thousands did leave. It's a pity we can't find a solution that makes everybody happy. My ultimate take is 1) China has a point in asserting sovereignty. If the sovereignty question is lost, then "1 country 2 systems" just becomes "2 countries 2 systems". It's not going to work 2) many people stay, and many people join, it's now up to us to make sure Hong Kong is not over.
I thought the Party Line, not mention the original deal after the lease ran out, was “One Country Two Systems”?
Was that not also what you claimed in your post?
It seems nature abhors a vacuum...
"The exodus of tens of thousands of professionals from Hong Kong triggered by a crackdown on its civil liberties is being offset by new arrivals: mainland Chinese keen to move to the former British colony.
The Asian financial hub has attracted tens of thousands of visa applications from mainland Chinese under the Top Talent Pass Scheme, a program launched in late 2022 aimed at luring high-income professionals and top global university graduates from around the world, though nine in 10 successful applicants are from China.
For mainland Chinese, Hong Kong’s unique attributes — such as wider freedom of speech and internet access, its cosmopolitan ambiance, a less oppressive work culture, and a society where ability largely trumps connections — set it apart, according to interviews by The Associated Press with 20 mainland Chinese visa holders." https://apnews.com/article/hong-kong-china-chinese-talent-influx-213cca4918b7210d7669ee66fa85c7bd
Very interesting.
Not surprising, after the fact.
As you say, natural.
Thank you.
The problem with looking in from the outside is that you may get the wrong impression from the Western media.
I just call it as I see it.
My only impressions, in this case, are from Mr. Wu.
Along with that, businesses have been hurt and many have left the region, as stated from first hand experience in the comments here.
China is State run, State controlled, and you are at the mercy of the State. Hong Kong too, whatever status it has, can be changed at the discretion of the Chinese government. Western media has nothing to do with it.
Appreciate this article. While I agree that Westerners mistakenly believe that HK has become like any other Chinese city (you list a number of real distinctions), I disagree that there was any threat of "secession or independence" that warranted the NSL and its smothering of HK's creative and business freedoms that was the foundation of the once cosmopolitan city.
Hi, independence and self-determination were at the core of the movement, and it was well-documented https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_independence . And these ideas can be highly contagious. They are the most effective call to arms deployed by the most radical elements. I was in HKU in 2010-2013, those black posters were already everywhere on campus. In fact, the national security issue became a serious matter for China since this movement gained traction in 2014-2015. Since then it had been a power keg. It had a minor explosion in 2014 Occuy Central, and finally had a full explosion in the 2019 anti-extradition protests. These were precisely what China were afraid of. Pre-NSL, there were also no legal tools that could tame these ideas. They can't just tell the HK police to shut it down. They can't shut it down themselves. What can't they do? Sit back and do nothing?
My question for you so that I can better engage with you is that, do you think a) these movements were not real, or b) do you think they were not a problem, or c) do you think there were effective tools to protect against these?
A- they were a fringe within a broadly popular movement to protect HK's autonomy per Article 2 of Basic Law
B- correct
C- none needed and the idea is silly if you consider what would actually need to take place for HK to declare independence. Eg, did HK have a militia ready to fight the PLA?
The CCP smothered Hong Kong over little more than a protest song and rationalization won't bring the city back.
A - It's a very important fringe. Just like Nazis were a fringe pre-1933. They were important because it's what many people secretly supported, they were just the ones who dare to speak out. I know this for a fact, through studying, living and working in HK. This movement had broad, albeit silent support.
B and C, a formal "declaring independence" is certainly out of question, but "independence" doesn't need to take a form like that. Independence simply means "ungovernable". Let me give you an example. Maybe, in another world, instead of suppressing it, China acquiesced. Instead of failing, this movement gained enough traction, and they got to elect a pro-independence chief executive, who always spoke a different tune with China. Appeared on CNN to badmouthed about China. Went to US Congress to badmouth about China. Oh yeah, they don't even have a militia, or army, or the missiles, or aircraft carriers to stand the wrath of the PLA. But PLA can also do nothing if there are no laws that allow them to do anything in such case. And the damage this could do for broader China, that a leader of a Chinese territory could openly, and legally challenge China, would be not just a nuisance, but an EXISTENTIAL crisis. And if PLA just step in without proper legal framework, think of the bigger hurt this can cause for China. After all, a nation is held together by an idea, not by guns.
If only this much grief could be harnessed to help Julian Assange.
I agree. Interestingly the most right-wing country in the world now seems to be China, the ethnocentric champion of the Han. This worldview has developed over the past 20 years and doesn’t allow much room for diversity and stifled cosmopolitan Hong Kong. This is also why many now believe Hong Kong is over and now just another Chinese city.
I left Hong Kong just before getting my PR because of these drastic political changes.
Maybe I’ll move back one day because I truly wanted to stay, but I no longer felt welcome as a non Chinese resident.
We live in a world now where the USA believes it is the ultimate evil for a state to consciously represent its majority race. China believes it is the ultimate good. I would prefer to live in a country with neither extreme. I felt Hong Kong was a great example of this middle ground until recently.
I hope that one day China will evolve and allow “minority people” within the nation to express their own identity and politics. For such a large nation there should be room for different views.
China once celebrated its cultural diversity and anti-colonialism but has now come to embrace ethnic nationalism. Mao Zedong claimed communism would eradicate “Han chauvinism” but now that the proletariat has become the establishment these ideas have largely been lost.
Thank you for your clear-eyed assessment of Hong Kong devoid of Western rhetoric. Hong Kong was colonized by the British as a "pirates' den" to fuel their opium drug trade with the mainland. I really appreciate your statements about the common sense of the National Security Laws.
One should remember that the outrage that sparked the laws was a Hong Kong resident that murdered his pregnant girlfriend on a trip to Taiwan, stuffed her and her dead fetus in a suitcase, and fled back to Hong Kong where he was immune from prosecution by Taiwan authorities and no extradition laws. In the end, he was charged with unauthorized use of her credit card when he returned to HK. After a few months of prison he was released. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3153048/mother-teen-girl-killed-taiwan-urges-hong-kong
You make a valid point about HK having to uphold their end of the One Country Two Systems bargain. There must be guardrails and, like it or not, HK is officially part of Mainland China. Macau enjoys similar privileges and seems to prosper within reasonable boundaries with no complaints. As you mention, why would Beijing want to mess with a good thing?
As a Westerner, I notice a sense of nostalgia for old "colonial" Hong Kong permanently encased in the amber of the British Empire. Of course "old Hong Kong" is over just like old Beijing has morphed since then. Hong Kong's fate is to be dynamic and, like a Phoenix, constantly be consumed and resurrected. I rest assured that Hong Kong will export some of that dynamic HK spirit to the Mainland as they struggle to find their way as a world leader in the 21st century.
"Nostalgia is a sweet place for a poet and writer to be in. But it's an indulgence; a distraction. You can't live in a distraction." ~ Gulzar
"As a Westerner, I notice a sense of nostalgia for old "colonial" Hong Kong permanently encased in the amber of the British Empire. ". This is a dark, yet accurate observation that I don't dare to speak out myself :)
I have to say I am extremely happy that property prices have gone down, it was one of the things I hoped the new government post 97 would address much earlier, and I say this as a former resident who still owns property in Hong Kong. The cost of living was crushing Hong Kong's culture, just as the UK desired. Those who lose are social parasites, not productive creators.
No comment on why the cost of property is dropping? Freedom is worth trading for a smaller mortgage?
Is that not what you are saying?
Insults do not help your argument.
Interesting framing. How much does/do you get paid to make it?
Rest well, Robert! Looking forward to Part 2. As someone with ancestral roots in GZ and HK, and who has relatives on both sides still living there, I have a very keen interest in seeing HK succeed.
Wow! I learn more about China from every one of your posts than reading 10 other articles. I'm starting to worry about you— the tall poppy gets cut down.
To everyone who reads this note, subscribe to Robert Woe's substack. He writes about the China of today from a deep background both in Western and Chinese cultures.
That's a new idiom learned for me. Thanks! I am less worried. Just imagine me writing a book here, through those posts. One day, the main contents will be structured into a book, while I will keep applying the framework in that "book" to review events as they come.
Here's another proverb you remind me of: "Be like water flowing around a rock.” I have read that this proverb is Taoist. IOW, instead of getting mad that the rock exists, and wasting time and energy trying to remove it, do the best you have with what you have.
When you have written the first draft of your book, I would be happy to read it as a proofreader and scientific editor. Realize that writing that book will make you an even taller poppy and may change your life in unexpected ways. I would still love to see that book.
You remind me of Bruce Lee's explanation of his martial arts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJMwBwFj5nQ
For the book, sure! Thanks for the offer.
Excellent article. Hong Kong is truly one of the world’s greatest cities. The energy, vibe and atmosphere there is truly unique.
Irony of western commentators' commentary on HK stripping HK of any agency
Indeed!!!
I think if there’s a clear eyed opinion on offer from the West, Stephen Roach applies.
You may not be familiar with Mr. Roach’s history in Hong Kong.
Is it always best hearing criticism, or praise, only from those within?
I think both sides of the debate is what makes the discussion worthy of our time.
>> Don’t call for Hong Kong independence, don’t call for overthrowing the government system in China, don’t be anti-China, and you will be fine. That’s the only major rule change of the last few years, as far as I can see. You don’t even have to be very patriotic, just don’t be treasonous or seditious. This is not really such a big of an ask
Yes, it IS a pretty big ask, because the right to speak against the government is inherent to free speech.
I support the idea that govt should be open to criticism. In Hong Kong, you still CAN criticize the government. Both the HK Government and the central government. Yet, the question of Hong Kong is deeper than that. It's not about government conduct as much as about national security. Although in a democratic society, you are supposed to be able to speak against the government, when it comes to national security, I didn't see much difference between two systems. You know, if in the States, you met with a Chinese spy and promised to help them to do something, I guess very likely that's a criminal activity. The bizarre thing about Hong Kong is, pre NSL, this type of thing was not illegal. I am less sure about secession. But last time Americans seriously tried it, it brought about the Civil War. If a Hong Konger advocated for secession in HK, pre NSL, he would be fine. He could even be elected as a legislator.
It is wrong to say the riots in HK were “inevitable”. As I understand it, they were instigated by the US. That said, I would agree that it was inevitable for Beijing to step in and help HK implement a national security law. Perhaps that was what you really meant.
I meant to say that the absurd situation needs a resolution, and >99% of chance that resolution will not be peaceful. In fact the riots could be much worse. Even that "instigation" did not happen out of blue, but the results of decades' media, discourses, education, etc. Many HKers wouldn't just accept it quietly if Beijing just stepped in. They were not quiet in 2003, they could only be less quieter in 2019.
I'm glad to see a counter argument to that FT article. It isn't over till its over! HK still has all the unique advantages you mentioned. It doesn't make sense to give up before they are even gone. I agree a more optimistic outcome is possible and even likely.
Back in January I got temporary residence in HK through one of the talent schemes. Hope I get the chance to use it before it is over ;)
Welcome and good luck!
Another well written piece! Your better at writing in English than many American I know :)
But as always :), I'll add that capital markets can be improved in the ways I suspect you want them to be without eliminating the intranational semi-segmentation of them which would run the great risk of causing China to quickly develop the dark pathologies that America has developed in recent decades.
I hop your having a great weekend!
---Mike
Thanks. My English writing is actually much better than my Chinese writing now :(
I have empathy. I suffer dyslexia but only in the Latin Alphabet. When I studied for my MS in Taiwan it was as if a 200 watt incandescent bull went on in my brain.
oh wow